So the posturing and wrangling is over! Hundreds of mandarins and scores of world leaders have left Bella Centre and returned home. For the time being it will be a time for recrimination. Many had arrived in Copenhagen with heightened anticipation and a strong dose of hope and optimism. The cynics had already pronounced themselves beforehand, having said that the climate change summit at Copenhagen would lead to very little, if anything at all. Sometimes, there is a very fine line between being a cynic and a realist and, as things stand, the sceptics were proven right.

There are no two ways about it. The concluding agreement about tackling global climate change is too weak and is seen as dashing the hopes of the many that believed the time was ripe to finally address the concerns about the warming threat. Many have criticised the outcome of COP15 as lacking "any teeth" and, hence, unable to address the various challenges of climate change.

Sadly, what remains from this agreement is now a stream of vociferous recriminations.

The environmentalists were quick to blame President Barack Obama for not making bigger US commitments to cut carbon emissions. On the other hand, insiders revealed China's apparent intractability. At the Chinese insistence, the profoundly important statement of a global cut in carbon emissions by 50 per cent by 2050, along with an 80 per cent cut in emissions by developed nations by the same date, was unceremoniously deleted. The latter limitations are regarded as essential if the world is to stay below the danger threshold of a 2°C temperature rise. Even worse, the 50-50 and 50-80 goals had already been agreed by the G20 group of nations and world leaders negotiating the agreement. Many believed the Chinese demand had amazed the negotiators.

Although the EU did its pitch, it is perceived as a weak effort to improve on its already ambitious programme of carbon emission reductions.

It is clear that without the consensus of China and the US no real and tangible progress will be achieved. China, with its rapidly expanding economy, has now outstripped and overtaken the US as the world's biggest CO2 emitter. While it may seem that the US had offered limited action commensurate to its size and influence, China remains determined to be unconstrained by legally-binding agreements. Some will be quick to accuse China of rejecting multilateral governance to the detriment of its sovereignty or growth. This argument is peppered with such historical and economic considerations and events that it would be foolish to assign an accusing finger at one singular party.

Sadly, as the political circus proceeds, this delicate biosphere will continue to suffer the ravages of our much vaunted "progress". It is now apparent that, given the scale of the problem, this is not simply a carbon crisis but, rather, it looks like a political crisis.

The one aspect of this deal that anyone realistic can welcome is the $100 billion global fund aimed at being raised and that are to be distributed to poor countries that, in turn, should help them adapt to climate change and go green. A total of $30 billion of these "fast start" funding will be used over the next three years and help mobilise the global fund. Some have reservations about this sum, suggesting that the bulk of the funds are largely made up of existing budgets with no indication as to how the new money is to be raised.

Another positive that has emerged from the summit is that, for the first time, the Copenhagen agreement recognises without reserve the fact that mankind must immediately work together to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2°C above the average level before the industrial revolution (much of this rise has already occurred) 200 years ago. Incidentally, this was the time when fossil fuels were starting to be consumed on a seriously large scale. Furthermore, COP15 has acknowledged the science behind the reasoning for climate change.

This science predicts that, should these levels be breached, it is likely that the new climatic effects will bring devastating drought, savage hurricanes and intense rainfall. This will affect sea levels that will disturb entire communities around the world, bringing mass migration and subsequent conflict.

All this has put more pressure on giants like China and India to finally start doing their best at harnessing the over consumption of coal-fired energy generation. The US must continue to fulfil its role if it wishes to remain credible and the landmark of any durable agreement.

This pact of sorts has not produced a lasting fix. It has achieved no Utopia. Much more work has to be done to be anywhere closer to a sustainable and equitable solution. Yet, things are hopefully starting to improve. The presence of so many influential players from around the globe must have surely concentrated the minds of many. The road will be long.

Hopefully, we can all come together to unravel 200 years of excess. The price of failure is too ugly to contemplate.

info@carolinegalea.com

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